Philadelphia Phillies +130 (7%) @6:40pm ✅
Cleveland Indians -1.5 +105 (8%) @7pm ✅
If you are comfortable laying the juice you could play Cleveland -140 on the ML here with the same edge. Personally that's too much juice for me so I will only be taking them to cover the RL for +odds.
🔥 Los Angeles Clippers -7 -105 @10:30pm ❌
Game 2 in this series and we have a similar situation to last nights 🔥 play with Milwaukee. Game 1 the Mavs pretty much controlled this game from the tip. We weren't on +6 but if you were it was NEVER a doubt. Couple reasons they controlled Game 1..... They shot the ball incredibly well going 49% from the field and 47% from 3. Pretty surprised they shot so well from deep considering they rank in the bottom half of the league in 3 point FG% (18th). Meanwhile LAC was the polar opposite as they were ice cold from deep going 11-40 (27%) and only 5 of those coming before the 4th quarter. This LAC team, believe it or not, is the best 3 point shooting team in the NBA and the only team in the league to average over 40% from deep on the season. Just like Milwaukee did last night we should see LAC find their stroke from deep at home allowing them to give this game a different narrative. Another interesting point I would like to touch on is the line Vegas has given us..... Game 1 closed at +6 and Dallas dominated the game from start to finish. Game 2 line opened at 6.5 and has since moved to 7. I think the books are telling us something here and its that LAC played an uncharacteristically bad game and we should see them play closer to their season averages tonight.
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets - Game 2 @7:30pm
No official play in this game here for a couple reasons. First and most importantly im not going to fade a solid edge that I find. Boston has the edge tonight at 7%. As most of you know I really like my 8% so im definitely not going to force myself into a play here. I am also not quite sure how accurate that 7% edge is considering The Big 3 of Durant, Harden, and Irving have played such limited time together this year. They are a different team with those 3 on the court so with no data to really handicap the current state of their team its difficult for me to say there is really a 7% edge on Boston here. What I will say is this.... Brooklyn did not shoot the ball well in Game 1 ESPECIALLY in the first half (0-10 from 3) and they went into half trailing Boston by 6 points. They came out of the half hot and won this game by 11 points (a 17 point swing). What is important to note here is Brooklyn, the 3rd best 3 point shooting team in the NBA, shot a lousy 23% (8-34) from 3 and still won this game by 10+ points. So assuming they can shoot around their season averages tonight this game theoretically should not be a tighter game than Game 1. Brooklyn played about a lousy as they could have and they were still remarkably better than Boston. Lean Brooklyn -9
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns - Game 2 @10pm
This game is SKETCHY and i have decided to stay away from it all together. We cashed on Phoenix -2 Game 1 and they lead the whole way and won by 9 points. So to see this line at Phoenix +2 tonight really throws up some red flags. I realize Chris Paul is banged up and the popular opinion that "Lebron cant go down 0-2" but i have this line at Phoenix -5.5 (10%) Now admittedly Chris Paul is a contributing factor in this game so not knowing how effective he will be is monumental in being able to handicap. But the way I see it, The line of Lakers -2 on the road after losing as +2 dogs tells me Lakers should win this game and even the series while my model, which has been pretty darn good, says the wrong team is favored tonight. So again im not going to force any action here and I will just pass on this game. Too many questions that wont be answered until we are watching so no way to really handicap pre game and project an accurate outcome. I would lean Lakers ML here and trust that Vegas knows something and that is why the line is where it is despite the edge. But really it is going to be a great game that I will look to enjoy